Up to 9,450 new business jets worth $280 billion are forecast to be delivered over the next 10 years, according to Honeywell Aerospace’s 23rd annual Business Aviation Outlook, released yesterday. This reflects an 8-percent increase in projected billings over the 2013 outlook, thanks to slightly higher aircraft deliveries, “modest” list price increases and continued strong demand for larger business jets. While annual billings are expected to surpass peak 2008 levels in 2017 and beyond, unit deliveries are not projected to reach the 2008 peak any time during the 10-year forecast.

Honeywell sees a realignment of near-term regional market shares, with business jet demand from North America slipping two percentage points to 59 percent over the next five years. Europe is expected to be the next-largest market for business jets in the next five years, accounting for 18 percent of new deliveries. Latin America is projected to account for 17 percent of the near-term demand, followed by Asia and the Middle East each at 3 percent.

For this year, Honeywell is estimating deliveries of 650 to 675 new jets, a single-digit percent increase from last year. It expects 2015 industry deliveries to be up “modestly.

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